VaR & Expected Shortfall
Course 03 · Path risk

Drawdown is a journey, not a statistic.

Learn to measure equity declines by depth, duration, recovery time, and the behaviour required to survive them.

Original underwater chart

Time below the peak is risk too

Depth measures the capital lost. Duration measures how long capital—and often confidence—remains trapped below its prior high-water mark.

High-water mark
PeakMaximum depthRecovery

Maximum drawdown

The largest percentage fall from an equity peak to a subsequent trough.

Drawdown duration

The time spent below the previous high-water mark before a new peak.

Recovery factor

Net profit divided by maximum drawdown; reward earned for the deepest capital decline.

Reading the curve

Four questions every backtest must answer

01

How deep was the worst decline?

02

How long did recovery take?

03

How often did new drawdowns begin?

04

Did losses cluster in one market regime?

Interactive lab

Drawdown & recovery calculator

Measure depth, the return required from the trough, and how much of the journey back to the previous peak is complete.

Underwater report

Peak-to-trough

-20.0%

$5,000 decline

Gain required

+25.0%

from the trough

Recovery progress40%

Recovery factor: 1.50 net profit per dollar of maximum drawdown.

Operating response

Respond by rule, not urgency

The point of monitoring is to trigger a prepared action while decision quality is still intact.

At warning level: cut new-trade risk and review execution.
At soft limit: stop the session and diagnose regime versus rule-breaking.
At hard limit: pause the strategy; do not trade it back to breakeven.
Resume size gradually after objective recovery criteria are met.

Lesson complete

Depth tells only half the story

Duration, recovery, and loss clustering reveal whether a strategy is operationally survivable.

Next: Portfolio correlation